Been reading about the predictions of how strong China will become in the next 25+ years.
China could well overtake the US in terms of GDP in the next decade or so but I doubt it will. Here's why.
1. China cannot feed its engine of growth without swallowing resources and there is simply not enough to go around. That is unless China wishes to begin conquering entire continents and making them into colonies.
2, People power will cause the government to fall and then, outright anarchy will begin.
3. Becoming No. 1 requires global vision and leadership. I don't think the Chinese will want to place themselves in that position right now. Give them another 100 years and 'yes'. They will be ready.
4. Why risk war when the west will surely wish to cause the destruction of the Middle Kingdom. The West will never allow any nation not based on Christianity to lead or speak on behalf of the human race. Not going to happen. The next world war will be the fight for religious global dominance.
5. Political power corrupts all. The strains of capitalism and the extended benefits of it are leading to more and more corruption. Until the leaders throw out all corrupt officials, nothing good will come from more power.
Don't just yet bet long on China unless you are betting for 2125. And as Keynes said, "in the long run we will all be dead". My money is on how much longer the US can keep the far left and far right from tearing down the entire republic down. Perhaps this is what the Founding Fathers of the USA envisioned: creative destruction of the republic every 200 years. Build, break, and destroy. From old comes new. Perhaps a new America can return to power. Perhaps.
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