04/14/2008

How bad will it get?

Subprime hell. That will probably be the phrase used to describe the first decade of the 21st Century. The first 7 years of the decade will most likely be used to describe the efforts of the US to stomp out terrorism. But, the subprime crisis is we what will remember should a global financial crisis occur. It's like someone in some secret room pushed a button and brought down the entire global market in order to make people forget the Iraq War. Forget about all those who have died. Forget all those who have lost loved ones. With the US Presidential election right around the corner, I can forsee the hot-button issue will be the 'stock markets' and not the loss of US military lives in far away lands. Sad. Very sad.

03/15/2008

Bear Stearns: RIP?

With the Fed and Chase backing Bear Stearns is there any chance the bank will survive? I don't think so. Anyone with a brain who is working at Bear has got to be (1) taking any call from a headhunter, (2) updating their cv, (3) praying that the company will give them a very generous severance package and (4) hoping that some sucker will pay top dollar for their overpriced and over-sized apartment in NYC.

If the Bush White House is smart, it would stop funding the Iraq War and the War on Terror and use the monies to (1) nationalize all banks and mortgage lending institutions immediately, (2) start charging countries around the world the going daily rate of $10M to keept US soldiers stationed in foreign lands, and (3) sell off at least 1/3 of its gold stockpile. With gold hitting $1000 an ounce, only a fool would want to hold onto the metal now. Take the money and run - is a smart thing to do.

03/09/2008

JPN Yen: 101 in March 2008 (Part II)

Well, the JP Yen hit the 101 level versus the US dollar last week. I guess it is time to revise downward the US dollar in light of the vast consensus that markets will continue to put downward pressure on the greenback. With oil hitting $106 per tub and the US Congress unwilling to take on the Bush White House, you can understand how little confidence investors see the US economy getting better soon. Here are my next set of predictions:

US$: global markets will put an extreme amount of pressure on the dollar and let it fall to the 95 yen per dollar by spring 2009. The Euro will climb another 10-15% against the dollar as well.

November Elections: The Democratic Party will emerge with a strong mandate for change. They will take the White House and take both the House and the Senate. With control of both, world markets will both celebrate and worry. Celebrate in the sense that the US may withdraw its military forces overseas and try to make peace instead of war. And at the same time, the markets will worry that the US may begin to erect stronger barriers against foreign trade and take a more aggressive stance against the imbalance of trade.

EU: The global power balance shift will move away from the US and land on the doorstep of the EU. The men and women in Brussels face a daunting task: take a strong stance against the US and move more toward Eurasia and APAC or mainstain the status quo.

02/23/2008

GOOG Acquires YHOO?

Here is what I am unsure of in the current GOOG blasting MSFT for attempting to acquire YHOO: if the triumvirate is so unhappy at the impending marriage, why don't investment bankers pitch a 'white knight' scenario to the M&A team at Mountain View? Wouldn't it be more productive and lucrative for the bankers to get rich off two silicon valley icons working to thwart the Evil Empire from invading the valley?

Is it possible that under such a scenario of GOOG taking over YHOO that Dr. Schmidt would ask Yang and Filo to 'walk the plank' for screwing up? I mean which is better - 'being tossed overboard by Redmond' or 'being thrown into a windowless room by Mountain View'?

The only winners in this game are the investment bankers and the outside legal teams. Shareholders can forget the thoughts of 'huge sums' of money falling from the sky. Bill & Steve should walk away from the table now - come back in 12 months and shave $10B off their tender price offer. As for the YHOO BoD, they should resign en masse and let another team take over the stewardship of YHOO before GOOG and MSFT feed off of YHOO's dead carcass

02/16/2008

Yahoo Investors Pushing Deal

Well, it looks like the YHOO shareholders (aka 'institutional investors') want their payday and they want it quickly. If MSFT is willing to bid $31, then they must be willing to increase their bid to, let's say - $36, right? I expect the shareholders are willing to throw the entire YHOO board of directors and Jerry Yang under the 'proverbial bus', in order to get their money out of YHOO.

Here is what I expect to happen very soon at Sunnyvale:

1.) Jerry Yang resigns as CEO and director.
2.) David Filo announces his soon-to-be departure.
3.) More Yahooers begin updating and sending out their CVs.
4.) Private equity firms set up an 'information booth' across the street from Yahoo! Center.
5.) Filo returns to Stanford.
6.) Jerry joins a VC firm as partner.
7.) Yahoo! ceases to exist.
8.) Investment bankers and advisors throw the biggest 'Deal Closing Dinner Party' complete with 'special entertainment/entertainers' and lots of 'treats'.

Good-bye Yahoo. Thanks for the memories.

02/09/2008

YHOO Deal with MSFT: Only Winners are I-bankers

How will the M&A advisory fees be divided? And will MSFT and its shareholders end up paying for all the advisory fees (financial and legal) of the target should the deal go through? On another note, can YHOO convince Steve and this team of bankers to up their bid to at least $50B? Now that GOOG has basically told Jerry & Co. that the new Silicon Valley companies should gang up and take on Microsoft head-on, does MSFT need to go super-duper hostile in order to get the deal done? My money is on Yahoo selling to MSFT. Having said that, I suspect Steve & Jerry (soon-to-be-Co-CEO of the combined entity) will begin selling off pieces of Yahoo by the end of 2009.

02/01/2008

Will teams of investment bankers approach EBAY?

Scenario: Donohoe cannot turn around EBAY in 2008. What happens then?

I believe investment bankers will come a-knocking on their doors. FY2008 will be a complete bust business-wise. In FY2009, the board will give Donohoe clear marching orders: Prepare the company to be sold either in whole or in piece meal. In order of sale: (1) Skype, (2) country operations - (in order): China, ROC, Korea, UK, (3) ProStores, (4) Shopping.com, and last but not least, (5) PayPal. The sum of the parts are worth more than the whole.

MSFT Bids for YHOO

Nothing like a big M&A deal to get Wall Street and investors to pay attention. If there is no stock trading activity, you might as well throw out huge sums of money to get the market going. I used to own YHOO shares and do not like the idea of Balmer & Crew taking over. But, a big 'but', Yahoo is no going to fix itself without a little help or a 'huge fire' under their workstations.

MSFT buys FAST. MSFT buys YHOO. What will MSFT buy next?  How about Nokia?

01/24/2008

Global Stock Markets Rebounding

Are the global markets headed higher and higher? Or is this a temporary state to give investors a chance to catch their collective breaths before we see another 5% drop?  Perhaps, it is time to unload all those margin positions and buy treasurys.

I am sad to see AAPL dropping below $150. I sold my shares in Apple when it hit $169 before it made it way to $200. If the share price drops much further, I might be tempted to buy back into Steve's dream.

01/16/2008

Yen Hits 105

I am somewhat surprised that the US dollar did not continue its long slide under 104 today. I am also surprised that the Japanese Gov't did not intervene in the markets to drive the US dollar back up. Or are they waiting until tomorrow?

On another note: did you get a look at the new Apple laptop? Wow! Major wow! Now, I have to find an extra $2000 and go out and buy one.

01/09/2008

Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar

The yen has been bouncing around in the range of 108.50 and 109.50 for the past little while. I expect the yen to jump to 105 in the very near future. As long as there is uncertainty in the US economy, the yen will continue to make serious gains. I don't believe that the dollar will see the 115 level until after the US elections in November.

01/04/2008

Nikkei Drops in 1st Day of Trading in 2008

I guess the result was not unexpected: Loss of 616.37 (down to 14,691.41).Hopefully the losses can be partly explained away with (1) short trading day, (2) many day traders are still probably on holidays overseas, (3) institutional investors will wait to see how the US markets do today and then, make their moves on Monday, and (4) who the heck trades on the first day of the year anyway?

01/03/2008

Oil Hits $100

As I do not own a car here in Tokyo, I am somewhat insulated from the rising price in crude oil. Or until the higher price of oil starts filtering its way into the general economy via higher input costs for manufacturers, producers, etc. Like many who work here in Japan, companies cover commutation costs. The monthly bill for me runs close to $225. Let't hope my company will still cover my travel expenses when the higher oil prices pushes up my monthly commutation expense to $350+.

The higher oil prices may discourage families from driving to their next vacation spot but, I really doubt it will affect many here around the metropolitan areas. Japan loves cars. Cars are truly a sign of independence. No need to suffer the painful and crowded mass transportation during the extended holiday periods such as New Years and Golden Week. 

Stock picks: watch out for online travel agency companies, there may be pressure on the OTAs over the next 6-9 months so long as oil hovers around the $100+-level. Higher prices at the pump will mean that many consumers will have to cut back on their discretionary spending. Consumers may need to switch from 'premium retailers' to 'big box retailers'. 

05/23/2006

A Kick in the Teeth: My Stock Portfolio

Shit! My stock portfolio is taking a f'ing beating. Why can't company CEOs get their heads out of the sand and navigate through these turbulent economic times? Are they afraid of making bad decisions? Are they so afraid of taking changes?

(CNN Money.com: Markets take a beating)

Yahoo Millionaires: Scams?

Frightening. It is this easy to break the law and make a million bucks. What the F am I working 14 hour days for? Why go to college and get a degree when you can turn on a computer and set up a scam and become a millionaire.

(Fortune: Scams)

05/07/2006

Disney takes over Pixar

Glad to hear the news! As a Disney shareholder, I am pleased that Roberg Iger, Disney CEO, had the courage to go through with the acquisition. Disney had lost its way in the animation fillm world. Gone were the days of great Disney films. With Pixar, Disney can reclaim some of its lost glory and help usher in a whole new era of wonderful films for children.

02/15/2006

SEC Gets Karate Chop to Throat: Ouch!

Wish I had been there to witness this 'critical event': The Faulking Truth. I remember when I watched Patrick B., CEO of Overstock.com, tear a new A-hole on some dirty, rotten scoundrels for doing some nasties; i.e. naked short selling.

Is Wall Street doing the nasties in order to earn a couple of extra bucks? Perhaps. Is the SEC turning a blind eye on some i-bankers doing the nasty? Perhaps. If the markets are rigged in the USA, will investors take their money elsewhere? Kurplunk! The whole darn market crashes down upon the dirty, rotten boys and girls. Stay back! All those ivy-league MBAers will be jumping off the roof tops in Manhatten. Watch out! Boom! There goes another rubber tree plant. Oops, I mean 'there goes another i-banker.'

02/13/2006

Livedoor: One Step Closer to Death

The Japanese prosecutors are about to hammer in the final nail into the Livedoor coffin. Looks like Horie is going to spend the next few months and years behind bars. What will he do once he is released from jail? Hop onto his private jet and fly off to Switzerland and live off his ill-gotten gains? Or will launch another Internet company and rebuild his name and image? Regardless of what he chooses to do, the only people who will suffer are his shareholders and employees. A sad day in Tokyo. And an even sadder day at Roppongi Hills.

Read NY Times.

01/19/2006

Livedoor: Stock Price Implosion

Livedoor. Internet darling one year ago. Today, every investor's worst nightmare. Or is it?

If you haven't heard, the government has made allegations that Livedoor, Japanese internet company, has submitted falsified financials in the year-end reports (year ended September 30, 2005). The FSA claims that Livedoor made illegal stock swaps during one of its many M&A transactions. As a result, the stock market pretty darn crashed this week.

I don't know if the company's CEO, Takafumi Horie, orchestrated the alleged illegal acts or not. My worry is that perhaps a person or person conspired without the CEO's knowledge to manipulate the stock price. Horie may be a nice guy but he is no Wall Street genius.

I hope he is not involved in the financial shennigans because in the end, Horie is probably a great catalyst for change in Japan. At least he has the guts to 'challenge' the old business vanguard.

12/30/2005

Goldman Sachs Gets Hands Slapped in Japan

Goldman Sachs in Japan got their hands slapped for several lapses in professional judgment: the investment bank illegally transfered stocks that were mistakenly ordered. Rather than correct their mistakes, GS transfered the stocks to the accounts of others and tried to hide the transaction. Such is the life of the big boys in Roppongi Hills.

Japanese M&A Acitivity: I-bankers Needed

This just in on the wire: Nomura Holdings Inc. plans to hire as many as 20 more bankers in Japan to work on corporate mergers and acquisitions. Apparently, Japan is HOT for M&A transactions. Japanese banks want to get in on all the action. While Nomura is not in the top 3 i-banks in the world, it does control the M&A market here in Japan. I wonder if Nomura pays as well as their US/Global counterparts?

12/28/2005

AAPL: $125 Target

Yup. That's right. You heard it here first. First off, let me write this disclaimer.

"I own AAPL shares. I have owned shares in Steve-o's Cupertino company since the beginning of 2005. I hold AAPL proudly. While I endorse the company, I am not paid by AAPL to do so. I do it by my own free will. My first Mac was the 180c. My current computer is the G4 15" PowerBook."

The stock price of AAPL is headed into the stratosphere is due to the upcoming product lines: (1) AAPL computers with Intel chips, (2) AAPL home entertainment devices, and (3) marketing. Steve is gearing up for the grand announcements in early 2006 at MacExpo. It is expected with much anticipation that Steve will introduce a new line of products that will capture the imagination of devout Mac Fans and bring over those diehard Window users. Apple is expected to increase its market share of personal computers and begin its dominance of home entertainment devices/hardware.

In a few short years, consumers will no longer own television boxes. Instead, they will reach for a remote control device that powers their entertainment/information/communication/home network/work space box. And AAPL is going to make that box.

12/10/2005

AAPL: $74.33

Burn baby burn! Apple inferno. Look at that baby go! Sky high for AAPL. I can't wait to see how well the company does next year when they begin the release of the next generation of Apple-Intel line of computers. Let's hope that the G5 comes out in the autumn of 2006.

My prediction on the price of AAPL at the close of trading on the last day of 2006 (with no further share splits): $105.00.

I bought AAPL at $38.00 earlier this year. While I don't own a heck of a lot of shares, I can proudly say that I am an owner of the company. Now, how do I contact Steve Jobs for my free AAPL t-shirt???

11/08/2005

The Capitalist Pig Speaks

Another wonderful article by Jonathan

Smartmoney.com
A Mean Left Hook

By Jonathan Hoenig  Published: October 31, 2005

IT HAS BEEN A tough month for the White House, with a botched Supreme Court nomination and a staff indictment among the black marks pushing the president's approval rating to an all-time low.

The Bush administration's follies have helped to animate the efforts of political rivals. Consider the misguided and un-American legislation proposed in recent weeks by Senator Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.).

Schumer has called for a 50% tax on the profits of oil companies, the money being used to help pay for Hurricane Katrina relief as part of a proposal he has dubbed the REPAIR Act, or Recapture Excess Profits and Invest in Relief. According to Schumer, the largest oil conglomerates might reap $80 billion in windfall profits. "If we took half of that, $40 billion, that could go to Katrina relief, and that would be money taxpayers wouldn't have to pay," he said at a recent press conference.

This is socialism. In Schumer's world, profits earned by law-abiding companies are his to confiscate and dole out as he sees fit. Schumer believes it is his right to rob those who've earned a living and redistribute the proceeds to those who have not. "Oil companies who are making excessive profits because of Katrina, and perhaps Rita, should, at the very least, shoulder a share of the burden with taxpayers," he said.

Why? The oil companies didn't cause the hurricanes, nor did they dissuade people from insuring their homes. The oil companies didn't force Americans to buy SUVs that get eight miles to the gallon. All Big Oil has done is provide a safe, reliable commodity to millions of Americans, most of whom, unlike Sen. Schumer, understand that prices shouldn't be set by Congress, but rather by supply and demand.

Economically speaking, it's obvious why Schumer's extortion attempt should be laughed out of Congress. There is no such thing as "excess profit." Oil doesn't appear magically out of the ground. Major investment and expenditure are required to extract crude oil, turn it into gasoline and deliver it to your local service station. Big Oil makes money, yes, which is reinvested in its business, developing new technologies, improving infrastructure and paying dividends to shareholders.

The moral case for supporting Big Oil is even more compelling. Oil companies are not owned by the federal government. They are owned by their shareholders and run by managers who have the full right to act in its best interest — not in the interest of a publicity-seeking senator.

In a free market, a company has the right to offer goods or services at whatever price it chooses. Consumers can accept or refuse the price. The fact is, oil companies have earned their profits by providing a useful product that many Americans are happily willing to buy, even at $3 a gallon. By way of comparison, a gallon of White Out would cost you about $254.17.

"Katrina has hurt everybody. There's only one small group that has benefited — the oil companies," said Schumer, politicking in front of a gas station. "Why shouldn't they take some of that benefit and return it?" Well, Senator, because they've earned it. Did Schumer offer tax breaks in the mid-1990s, when sub-$20-a-barrel crude prompted Big Oil to undergo major retrenchment and belt tightening? Of course not. That sort of thing doesn't play well in Poughkeepsie.

If he actually wanted to bring down gas prices, perhaps Schumer should take a look at the taxes paid at the pump. According to the American Petroleum Institute, Schumer's home state of New York boasts the highest gasoline taxes of any state in the union, with 62.9 cents of tax levied on every gallon.

Schumer has decided that not only is a company's profit subject to confiscation, but so is the private intellectual property that it has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to create. Earlier this month, Schumer called for the temporary suspension of the patent owned by Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holdings covering Tamiflu, which fights the avian flu. Roche's patent on the drug expires in 2016, but by suspending it, Schumer would allow generic drug manufactures to produce the drug, supposedly adding to supply.

Schumer scolded Roche for "putting profits ahead of world safety." But while Schumer was busy putting out press releases, it was Roche (or Gilead Sciences (GILD) which in 1996 granted Roche the exclusive rights to manufacture and distribute the drug) that made the effort to produce Tamiflu in the first place.

The government's job is to protect private property — not to confiscate it for the benefit of the so-called public good. Those who take the time and put forth the effort to create life-saving drugs should be free to profit from them. To suspend Roche's patent simply because it isn't providing the drug in a manner that suits Schumer is akin to breaking into the company's bank account and stealing millions. It's thievery.

This type of maneuver is old hat for the senator. Four years ago, Schumer pulled a similar stunt with Bayer (BAY), which held the patent on the Anthrax-fighting antibiotic Cipro. In the midst of a national paranoia over Anthrax-tainted mail, Schumer tried to suspend Bayer's patent on the drug, arguing that "one company should not be able to stand in the way of the health needs of a nation."

The economic rationale against Schumer's actions are obvious. Why should investors or drug companies spend billions to develop breakthrough treatments if politicians can effectively steal their secrets just as the value begins to rise? Such a policy discourages development, innovation and research. You'll note the senator hasn't been in the private sector since 1974. Perhaps he has forgotten that the profit motive doesn't work without the profit.

More important is his philosophy. Schumer's proposals run directly counter to the basic capitalist principles on which this country was founded. The Declaration of Independence presents our rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness as unalienable. They can't be revoked, suspended or struck down by the majority mob.

Yet that's exactly what Sen. Schumer seems willing to do. Free trade, for him, exists up to the moment he gets antsy for a photo-op. In an effort to bolster his own public image, Schumer targets large corporations who've done nothing more than legally provide goods and services to the free market. He does it all with a smile on his face, claiming to serve the "public good."

His party and constituents should be ashamed.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC

________________
Suite 604
531 South Plymouth
Chicago | 60605
capitalistpig.com
The United States of America

All information included herein is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer of securities of any of the funds managed by CPAM, LLC. Any such offer or solicitation will be made only after you have received the Confidential Private Offering Memorandum. Access to information about the funds is limited to investors who either qualify as accredited investors within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or those investors who generally are sophisticated in financial matters, such that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of prospective investments.

10/09/2005

TWX: AOL on Acquisition Binge

Heard that AOL just purchased one of my favourite blogs, Weblogs, for less than $30 million. While I am surprised that AOL is getting into the blog space, I am pleased that the company is set on fighting for its very survival. As Time Warner has given the boys and girls at AOL their marching orders (make your own money), they are taking a hard look at what drives the Internet.

I have always believed that bloggers are more than just a passing fad. Any online media company or internet company that does not grab 'blogging' with both hands is doomed for failure. Webloggers and their ilk are setting the Internet on fire. We are a growing presence on the web and can influence greats parts of society. It's too bad that the PRC (People's Republic of China) and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is determined on suppressing the voices of their countries netizens. The longer the CCP holds back change, the greater and uglier the battle for freedom shall be.

I hope that AOL does not to alter or negatively effect change at Weblogs, Inc. I love the sites as they are. No corporate bullshit, please. Keep the AOL logo and TWX logo off the blogs and we'll keep coming back. Once AOL tries to turn the blogs into some commercial operation, you can kiss the viewer traffic good-bye.

09/19/2005

Mary Meeker on China

It's going to get very exciting in the topsy turvey world of Chinese stocks now that Morgan Stanley's Marry Meeker is covering more than a handful of stocks out of the PRC.

I sure would love to dump some money into Chinese pure-plays but I still have reservations about what the CCP will do in the future. You have got to figure that should the CCP invade Taiwan, all Chinese stocks will drop at least 35-40% in the week after a bloody invasion and war. Why would Chinese stocks fall in the event of a war between the two countries?

Well, you can bet your bottom dollar that the US and Japan would come to the rescue of Taiwan. Voila - WWIII. There would be serious sanctions placed on Chinese companies and trade would most likely be affected. You can forget about your money in China. In a war, your money becomes property of the CCP. No lawsuits. No money. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. See ya later.

I believe the future lies in the US and Japan getting along better. As these two countries are the #1 and #2 leaders in GDP, you can expect the trade to continue to grow.

And if you are ready to invest in China, you should be demanding a 25% discount on everything. Anything less that 25% is a fool's game.

CBS MarketWatch: China's Prospects

08/19/2005

Michael Milken: Back in the Saddle?

Is Michael Milken the 'Master Mind'? Is he MM? Interesting development. Interesting who-pulled-the-trigger on Overstock.com. Will it come down to a 'boxing match' between MM and Patrick?

Master Mind vs. Overstock.com

P.S. If Michael Milken is MM, I would hate to be the next guy on Milken's radar!!!

P.S.S. Could MM go after GOOG? Would MM be bold enough or does he have the balls to go after the non-evil doers? Sure would love to see that fight.

08/16/2005

Reg SHO: Threshold Security List

Just in case you needed to know where to find the "Security Threshold List". Fascinating information on possibilities of 'naked short selling'. I just watched a news clip of Overstock's CEO and CNBC discuss Overstock's allegations/assertions that there is a conspiracy to 'naked short' OSTK. Interesting news. If Patrick's assertions are proven, will it create a 'POP' in the company's share price? Is it a time to 'load up' on OSTK?

08/10/2005

Carl Icahn vs. Time Warner

Looks like Raider Carl Icahn is after TWX. Let's hope that Icahn can get Parsons & Co. to take some drastic actions in order to pump up their share price. Hey, the stock has gone no where in the last 12 months. When is it ever go back over $20? $30? $50???? As a shareholder of TWX, I wish Carl and his den of thieves all the luck in the world.

07/17/2005

Cashing In: Capitalist Pig

Sitting here in my hotel room in SF and watching Fox News Channel. I haven't watched "Cashing In" for close to a year now. Jonathan Hoenig, aka "the Capitalist Pig" and my financial guru, is on television. He just gave one of his famous quotes: "the stock market is making money hand over fist". Right on! He made that statement in context of the Karl Rove fiasco and summer controversy. I would have to agree with the Pig. I really think that the media is trying to make another story about Rove during the slow summer months. Had the story hit during the autumn months, we would probably see more viewer traffic and movement in DC. Now in the summer - no one cares.

As for my stock picks, I'm up across the board. My pick du jour has to be AAPL. I still believe that the boys and girls down in Cupertino have got a good product strategy and come 2006, the market will see the release of a slew of 'groovy products'. Groovy sells! Apple will be the 'must have' product going forward.

07/14/2005

AAPL: Surprise Earnings Q3'2005

What a surprise! A pleasant surprise. I'm so glad that I put AAPL in my portfolio. Just keep watching Apple. All the naysayers are going to be on wrong side of the street: AAPL is going to continue climbing for the rest of the year. And the big bump will come when AAPL begins releasing their new machines which will run on the Intel platform. I predict that AAPL will hit $75 a share within 12 months from a full release of product lines (desktops, PowerBook, iPods, iPhones) which take advantage of the Apple OS and Intel platform.

Keep on rocking Steve!

07/03/2005

Capitalist Pig

Smartmoney.com

In Defense of Hedge Funds

http://www.smartmoney.com/tradecraft/index.cfm?story=20050613

By Jonathan Hoenig  Published: June 13, 2005

IT'S BOTH AMAZING AND a little bit bizarre that the same mainstream media that told folks to stick it out for the long haul while the market melted in 2000 and 2001 are now writing smear pieces about hedge funds simply because they're not minting money this year. Indeed, we're now in the golden age of hedge fund hysteria, with each passing day delivering new negative charges against an industry that by almost every yardstick should be celebrated, not demonized.

At the heart of this hysteria is a complete ignorance of what hedge funds really are, both among the regulators who oversee them and the financial media that have, in recent weeks, whipped up a panic about how hedge funds threaten to disrupt financial markets world-wide. So let's start by simply defining the term: A hedge fund is a pool of money pledged by "accredited" (read: rich) investors and managed by a general partner. While most people assume that hedge funds trade frequently and make big bets on financial esoterica, the truth is a hedge fund is a legal structure, not an investment technique.

So while the media routinely characterize hedge funds as "risky" or "highly leveraged," the reality is hedge fund strategies, just like mutual fund strategies, run the gamut from the ultra-conservative to the highly volatile. Some funds use high levels of leverage, others sit in cash for months at a time. Some employ complex spread trades, while others simply buy and sell stocks. Just knowing someone runs a hedge fund tells you absolutely nothing about how it's run. What matters are the strategies, positions and discipline that the manager uses to maximize the money.

Yet that reality hasn't stopped one of the more ignorant perspectives regarding hedge funds from spreading like wildfire. Thanks to the negative media coverage, there now exists the notion that hedge funds are ticking time bombs, recklessly leveraged and dangerously allocated portfolios just teetering on the verge of throwing international markets into a near meltdown.

It's a perspective that's fueled by a new breed of sloppy journalism that makes Newsweek magazine's Koran desecration story look like the Oxford English Dictionary. Business reporters now attribute just about any financial occurrence to those pesky and uncontrolled hedge funds. Oil prices high? Must be the hedge funds cornering crude. Tech stocks falling? Must be the hedge funds selling them short. They've become a convenient media scapegoat for every market move.

Most recently, it was the carnage in General Motors (GM) that was falsely attributed to hedge funds' influence. And while many funds certainly lost money trading GM's equity and debt, so did thousands of other investors, ranging from institutional pension accounts hedged with derivatives to Midwestern Ma and Pa Kettle's 100 shares of common stock. And despite the fact that the size of assets controlled by hedge funds is still dwarfed by those controlled by mutual funds and other investors, the press has become quite comfortable with attributing every market maelstrom to this woefully misrepresented group. Because hedge funds are required under Securities and Exchange Commission regulation to keep a low profile (more on that in a moment), they are never able to clearly respond and silence the rumor, innuendo and gossip that now passes for legitimate reporting.

Another major point the fear mongers have focused on in recent weeks is the notion that hedge funds are somehow unregulated. While this is untrue, the inaccurate perception nevertheless fuels conspiracy theorists who claim that a secret cabal of investors is always behind the scenes pulling the markets' strings. The fact is that hedge funds are exceedingly regulated. SEC rules limit those who may invest to wealthy investors. And while mutual funds and brokers spend billions of dollars a year on advertising, hedge funds aren't allowed to promote or publicly solicit business in any fashion. Can you think of any other industry that is subject to such Orwellian constraints?

Naturally, because hedge funds aren't permitted to promote themselves, the only time one ends up hearing about them is on the infrequent occasion when something goes wrong. While the vast majority of the thousands of hedge funds out there are run by hard-working, honest and ethical people, the press only reports on the few bad apples.

The truth is that the real loss of capital over the past few years hasn't come from hedge funds, which have outperformed the market, but from SEC-regulated investments. On the corporate side, you'll remember that Enron, WorldCom and Adelphia were all highly regulated firms. And among investors, just consider how many trillions of dollars were squandered thanks to the recommendations, trading and money-management skills of SEC-regulated mutual funds and investment advisers.

Try to keep in mind that hedge funds aren't run by lawless bandits who, if not for federal regulators, would screw every investor out of their last dime. They are governed, as every one of us is, by the rule of law that prohibits violating individual rights. When cheating, fraud or financial impropriety exists, the law protects investors and offers legal recourse.

What the market needs isn't more hedge fund regulation, but more openness. By lifting the public solicitation restrictions that keep hedge funds in the shadows, the investing public would be better informed of how the industry's risks and opportunities compare with other investment options.

No doubt the cynical media will continue to suggest that hedge funds' activities hurt investors large and small. Participants in hedge funds, so the argument goes, are being taken by the industry's supposedly unreasonably high fees. Non-participants are hurt by their reckless and market-moving trading. Both suggestions are patently incorrect.

Despite all the hissing about hedge funds' high costs, the truth is that they've been worth it, outperforming almost every other asset class. Since December 1993, for example, the CSFB/Tremont Hedge Fund Index has bested the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 and the MSCI World Dollar index.

More recently, hedge funds actually made money in May, according to both Standard & Poor's and Hennessee Group, a research and consulting firm that tracks hedge fund performance. So despite all the negative smear pieces in the press, all the concerned lawmakers who've whipped up fear regarding the danger of hedge funds and all the calls for increased regulation, the truth of the matter is that hedge funds are, once again, outperforming the rest of the pack. As of June 1, Hennessee pegs year-to-date hedge fund performance at -0.27%, while S&P estimates a loss of -0.42%. That's better than the 1.98% loss for the Dow Jones Industrials, the 0.98% decline for the S&P 500 and the 4.66% drop in the Nasdaq Composite.

It turns out hedge funds aren't conniving fraudsters or market manipulators, but hardworking, opportunistic investors simply trying to make a buck. Look beyond the hysteria and you'll see that while not every fund has made money they've generally provided investors with superior risk-adjusted results. And even beyond benefiting their investors, hedge fund activities have behooved the general public by adding liquidity to the marketplace, helping to ensure that investors of every size can assume or lay off risk at will. Far from disruptive, their influence is steadying, taking risks and entering markets that less adventurous investors would likely avoid. That's the real story the mainstream press has yet to tell.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.

06/15/2005

Capitalist Pig Stock

Yippee!!! I just got the best piece of mail this year! A large envelope with my very own 'Certificate of Stock' from Capitalist Pig Asset Management, LLC - 100 shares. Now, I truly am a 'capitalist'!!!  Thanks Jonathan! You're the man.

The certificate is designed by Jay Ryan and is limited to a run of 4000 prints. Again, thanks Jonathan - I can't wait to get my certificate framed. It'll sit on my wall along with my degrees and photos of 'Gordon Gekko' (Michael Douglas from the movie, "Wall Street") I purchased via eBay. I wear my black 'Capitalist Pig' t-shirt with great pride and laugh in any socialist's face. Gafaa. Gafaa.

The certificate has a quote from Ayn Rand:

"Capitalism demands the best of every man - his rationality - and rewards him accordingly. It leaves every man free to choose the work he likes, to specialize in it, to trade his product for the products of others, and to go as far on the road of achievement as his ability and ambition will carry him."

06/06/2005

AAPL: Time to Buy

Going to contact my broker in a few minutes and buy me some AAPL.

05/17/2005

Morgan Stanley Takes Punch in Jaw

Ouch! The jury in West Palm Beach just handed lipstick magnet, Ronald O. Perelman, a big, fat juicy award of $600M (or to us simple folk, a gazillion bucks). Perelman claimed that Morgan Stanley (Wall Street firm who cater to the uber-rich and powerful) withheld documents during a transaction.

In the transaction, Lipstick boy was to receive shares in Sunbeam in a share swap for Coleman. If you don't remember, Sunbeam was once run by 'Mr. Chainsaw' - you know, the dude who loved to cut staff (with a chainsaw) from his company's payrolls. I forget the dude's name (just joking) but, I guess he used to walk around the office building with a sheet of plastic over his suit - lest, he get blood on his fine wardrobe as he took his chainsaw to the deadwood. (Do you think some Hollywood mogul will make a horror movie with Mr. Chainsaw as the central character of the film?)

Getting back to Morgan Stanley, the judgement of $600M bucks is going to hurt a wee bit. I don't expect that the Executive Directors nor the Managing Directors will suffer when it comes to 'bonus time' (or in regular parlance - "feeding frenzy") at the end of the year. [At 'frenzy time', the only question EDs and MDs ask is "how much do you love me?" Love me alot and give me a bonus of 10X my salary. Love me a ton and give me a bonus of 100x my salary. Stick a red, hot poker stick up my bum and give me a bonus of 2x my salary.]

The people who are going to suffer are the Associates and Analysts. (In Wall Street lingo - the midnight slaves.) Since they are the 'deadwood' at many of the I-banks, they can be cast off and allowed to sink and swim with the sharks.

Do you think Morgan Stanley can 'go after' the M.D.s (who have since left the firm)? Or, I heard that M.D.s, in Wall Street lingo, means 'managing director' - not to be confused with Medical Doctor or "Mean-swinging Dick". You get the picture. I hope.

By the way, what the heck did Perelman want with Sunbeam? Stick to the knitting! Stay away from companies that are not in your backyard. Gee - you'd think that with all those Ivy-league boys and girls at Perelman's shop they would have remembered something from all their corporate strategy classes: "Play with fire and you lose your eyelashes. Play with non-core businesses and you lose your underwear." (Unless you can sue some sucker and recoup your loses.)

Anyhow, I guess Perelman and Morgan Stanley are headed back to court. The Court of Appeals. You didn't think that uber-talented and uber-rich "Morgan Stanley" would walk away from 600 gazillion bucks, did you???

(NY Times: Morgan Stanley - It's going to hurt me more than it hurts you - NOT!)

04/14/2005

Hank Greenberg Gives Wife Huge Gift

The huge gift was shares in AIG worth $2B and change. Gee, had I known Hank was going to "give away the farm", I would have sent him small gifts over the years in hopes of getting some 'gifts'.

Does his gift of a gazillion shares in AIG "pass the smell test"? Do you think the SEC will think it odd? How about ol' (attack boy) Eliot?

If Hank felt so bad about all his past transgressions, he could have donated his shareholdings to some fund to benefit the surviving family members of soldiers who lost their lives in the Iraqi War.

(CNN: Hank Greenberg Does Santa Claus in April)

04/12/2005

Effects of Chinese Demonstrations

The anti-Japan demonstrations are becoming more and more organized. What was once a 'quick gathering of political activists' via the internet has become quite possibly a government-sanctioned, government-supported, government-organized protest. If the CCP wished to engage the services of patriotic citizens in order to serve the global interests of the party, so be it. All I want from the PRC is full disclosure. If the CCP cannot force Japan to "act", then it should announce to the world that the party will utilize all possible resources to achieve that end.

I believe the political protests will have severe consequences on China both in the short term and long term.

Short term effects: Chinese stocks will be sold off and large institutional holders (pension funds) will stay away from them. If you take a look at some of the Chinese stocks traded on the Nasdaq, you'll notice that they are trading down.

Long term effects: Global companies may need to rethink their Asian strategy. If China is a 'powder keg' and is regular to explode in a 'new revolution', no Global 1000 company will even think about setting up operations in the PRC. Why would anyone want to risk so much in China? The future 'country premium' on China is going to be "sky high" on all capital projects. Heck, it'll be cheaper to set up ops in Japan - and Japan is a very expensive country but, at least, foreign companies know the country is 'no where near as dangerous as China'.

I predict that China will break up into a loose federation of states. With the growing economic power of the coastal provinces, I cannot see how future generations will allow politicians in Beijing to wield control over the country. Will China follow in the same footsteps as the former Soviet Union? Quite possibly.

04/05/2005

IAC: Will it dump eLong? Hey Barry - How's Life?

What will IAC do with its majority stake in eLong.com should the world start dumping Chinese companies and stop doing business with China? If the CCP sends its troops across the strait and invade Taiwan, how fast will the world launch a boycott and freeze on all trade with China? Should such events occur, there will be zero demand for travel-related services for eLong.  What will IAC do under such conditions?

The CCP needs to take a look at how more violent protests committed by its citizenry may snowball into much, much worse. China's place in the world and its rapid growth are at stake. What will 0% GDP growth be like in China? How will the state keep all those unemployed people engaged in productive activity? While the CCP may quietly be applauding the demonstrations against Japanese-related businesses, how happy will the CCP be when all trade with the country ceases?

How will the CCP feed the one billion people inside its borders? How fast will the reverse of capital flow be? We all remember the 'Oil Shock', perhaps future generations of economics students will learn about the 'China Shock'.

Can you say 'failed state institutions'? Can you stay 'failed private enterprises'?

If we thought 'Black Monday' was bad for the stock markets, wait until we see 'Black China Day': the day when investors start dumping Chinese stocks like a hot potato. By the way, did you read that Harvard University divested itself of PetroChina? When this occurs, how fast will the 'hungry Chinese masses' turn their anger away from Taiwan and Japan and march onto Beijing?

The slow and painful bloodletting has begun. I'm sure glad that I did not pick up shares in these Chinese companies: LONG, NTES, SINA, SOHU, JOBS.

Netease: Boycotting Japanese Products

Are the rumors true? If so, what does it all mean?

Is a boycott a sign of good 'corporate governance'?

If you are a shareholder of Netease (Nasdaq: NTES), do you have cause for suing company management should their actions result in a loss of market value?

Isn't the role of company management to 'increase shareholder value'? How does boycotting customers serve that end? What happens if the brand suffers as a result of management's actions?

Can the board of directors be held responsible for failing to execute their fudiciary duties? Gotta go do some research on the above cited examples. Have to check out Professor Bainbridge's blog to learn more about shareholder lawsuits and the issue of 'primacy of directors'.

On another note, is it time to start 'shorting Chinese stocks'? That could be a 'no brainer' in my books. Now, which companies should we 'short' first? Which companies are the weakest?

Shareholders should send management a "clear message": do not use the company for your own political agenda!

NTES closed at $48.51 on Monday. Let's see how the markets react to management's desire to launch a boycott against Japanese manufacturers.

Shareholder Revolt: Sina & Sohu

Shareholders in both Chinese portals should take a long, hard look at their reasoning for keeping those shares in their portfolios. If Sina and Sohu allow the CCP to dictate what content to display, what is the meaning of the internet? Shouldn't information be free to everyone? Why is the CCP so afraid of allowing people to post comments about the Pope and his death?

Also, point to consider: Should we consider Sina and Sohu partners with the CCP? If so, would you want to hold their shares in your portfolio?

(Chinese Portals Censoring Religious Commentary: Sina.com & Sohu.com)

04/01/2005

YHOO: Sky High?

YHOO closed today (Thursday in NY) at $33.90. With the ad wars between YHOO and GOOG heating up, will YHOO show the upstart how the real world works? I sure hope so.

I'm impressed with how YHOO has brought out their new product 360 degrees and picked up Flickr on the way. Clearly, the Yahooers are carving out an even bigger space in the blogosphere. Gee, I might even be tempted to show myself in the "Wacky World of 360-land" in the near future.

Up until now, I have tried to keep myself pretty much hidden from the real world and don't talk too much about work or about myself. But, I guess in the YHOO-world of bloggerland and photos, I might just open up the door a "wee-bit".

Now, I have got to get myself an invite to YHOO Playland. Should I send an email to the Chief Yahooers?

03/05/2005

Yahoo vs. Google: Round II

The first round goes to Google. Google came out fast and furious. It threw GMail, AdSense, Local and Maps at Yahoo. And Yahoo was caught flat-footed. Yahoo took a couple of good punches on the chin and nearly fell but Yahoo remaining standing. Points to Google.

The second round is leaning towards Yahoo. Yahoo is not about to give up to the new upstart. The purple boys and girls are readying their arsenal of new toys for release this year. You can bet that Terry, Susan, Dan, and the Chief Yahooers are ready for the fight of their lives. Points to Yahoo.

(Disclaimer: I am an investor in Yahoo and would love to see the price per share go up but, I really believe Yahoo is abo