strategist

China: No More Secrecy Online

Looks like the Chinese government is working with online companies to secure more information about web users. Not very good for democracy and privacy. Should investors be worried about their money in start-up companies?

[Disclosure: I have no investments in China.]

(NY Times)

China: 2025

What will China look like in 2025?

Will the country lead the world with its No. 1 economy? Will it become the sole remaining superpower?

In my opinion, the anwer is no to both questions. I really don't think China wants anything to do with becoming a true global leader both militarily and economically. That is, until it is truly ready. My guess, China will set itself on the path to be a global superpower in 100 years. It is in no real hurry to get there just yet.

China still has a long way to go  before it can challenge the US for global supremacy. The US is still, by far, the only country that can project itself onto the global stage and make things happen.

Mind you the past eight years prior to Obama becoming US president were hard for the US. Let's hope that the Obama administration can keep the US in the front and as the sole superpower for the next 10-20 years. If the US needs to get stronger, it had better start asking its own citizens to begin making lots of sacrifices. Such as the willingness to pay higher taxes. Understanding that military service is no longer an option but mandatory for all citizens regardless of age, sex, sexual orientation. All must serve.

China GDP Rebounds

I don't think the Q2 '09 GDP figure is accurate: 7.9%. My forecast said growth would be 14.5%. I suspect that the Chinese government is under-reporting the growth figure so as to keep the West as far as way from the country as possible. Had the government reported the much higher and more accurate figure, you can bet your bottom dollar that every government in the West would be hammering Beijing to open up its border to more and more and more and more foreign trade and FDI.

I don't think the CCP is just ready to let the capitalists from London, New York and Tokyo come into Shanghai and Beijing and take over the economy. Nope. Not going to happen in my lifetime and most likely not going to happen for another 100 years.

The West should give up and try to open ne w markets elsewhere. China is a lost cause. There is no way China will let the West fully come into the country. Sorry - not going to happen.

China: How Much Risk Are You Willing to Accept?

As the world continues to face huge hardships in economic growth, many companies are looking toward China as the 'promised land' for future global demand. My simple question to all capitalists is this: how much risk are you willing to bear?

The Chinese government can, at anytime, seize your assets and call it even. Why would the CCP do this? Why not? Who is going to stop them? Think about how China was closed off the West for so long. And think again about how China could do it again? Perhaps, the 5-year plan for the government is to suck in as much capital and natural resources over the next five years and then, BOOM. The great wall goes back up and all foreigners are locked out again.

I, for one, would not be willing to risk one dollar of capital in China. There are so many growth opportunities in the world and I would rather put capital to work elsewhere. In my opinion, China will be ready in about 25 years.

I hate to pop the bubble of fantasy thinking but I it is time for Western capitalists to wake up and understand what is truly happening in Asia.

China: Selling PCs in the Middle Kingdom

I don't think foreign PC makers can convince the Chinese government from reversing their controversial policy of demanding the installation of some (tracking/web filtering/monitoring) software on all PCs shipped to/into China from 1 July. The only way the Chinese government would ever drop such a high barrier to PC makers is when they perfect a 'human tracking/camera embedded in the eye' software/hardware for each of the 1.3 billion people in the country.

China wants to track and follow everyone in the country. Once this technology is perfected, the government need not care what people do with their PCs: the government will actually see what they are doing through the government-installed camera in every citizen's left eye/right eye.

I am quite sure some company based in Silicon Valley, Austin Texas, Boston Mass, or Waterloo Ont is working on the design specs right now.

Just think when you go in for an eye exam, some government-backed doctor will place a few eye drops in both eyes with nano-size bots in the liquid. Once inside, the bots will embed themselves right at the back of the eye and voila - we have a live connection.

Instead of the West screaming about installing stupid software onto PCs, the West should think of ways of preventing the tracking of humans by the Chinese government. How about tin foil hats or something like that?

TSQ

Remembering Tiananmen Square. It has been 20 years since thousands of brave students and citizens took a stand against the government. Twenty years since the roots of democracy were smothered. Twenty years ago.

I stook in the middle of TSQ and tried hard to think of what it might have been like for China to watch and hear of how its own citizens were brutally attacked and made to disappear. Sadness.

History shall never forgot about the events leading up to the tanks rolling into the square. And history shall never forgot what has happened since. No matter how hard some try to wash away those events, they shall fail.

Democracy shall prevail. Freedom of thought and speech will prevail.

More Problems in China: Poison in Baby Formula, Poison in Dairy Products

Thanks but, no thanks - I would prefer not drinking any milk from China. Nor would I like to eat any dairy-related products either. I don't know if the country will ever have a safe (100%) food supply chain.

I sure hope the authorities execute the villians in this terrible scandal. Profiteering from poisoning the food chain should be punishable by death. Let's hope they get it.

Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the USA

I wished I could have seen live the 'crash' at the White House by the heckler, Wang Wenyi. Also, I missed GW grabbing Hu's jacket. Two very funny incidents. Not sure how they played in the Chinese Communist Party newspapers but, it would be nice to read their editorials about the visits and the 'two incidents'.

Picking up today's paper, I was somewhat surprised to read an editorial about Hu's speech at Yale University. At the speech, Hu says that China will not copy the ways of the West. In other words, China will not follow in the same footsteps as the USA.. whatever that is supposed to mean, I don't know.

What I suspect is that Hu will not make any grand gestures or moves to placate the concerns of the US government until after the 2008 elections. Hu knows that the next US president is the one he (and China) will have to deal with. GW has become the lame duck and everyone knows it. The Chinese only want to know whether or not GW or shall I say, the GOP, are finished in the 2006 mid-term elections. If the GOP lose badly, the Chinese will begin making moves to speak with the Dems on the Hill. I am sure that Karl Rove has already got a few 'political tricks' up his sleeve to embarass the Dems and the Chinese Connection and has the ultimate scare: If the GOP lose, the Dems will embrace the CCP and the USA will turn to communism. I can see it now: Karl Rove will claim that the Dem leadership are 'Chinese spies'.

A free and democratic China should be the goal of every Western government going forward. Communism has no place in the world in the 21st Century.

Angry Chinese Blogger:

Good blog entry: Click here.

I don't know if Japan and China will ever be friends and/or allies. There is too much bad history between the two nations. The Chinese anti-Japan riots in the recent past scare the crap out of me. AS long as the politicians of the two countries are willing to 'whip up the nationalists' in order to gain some cheap political points, I will remain scared.

Life under Communist China: Garbage Income

Life is definitely not getting better for the Chinese under Communist rule. Perhaps, this is how the 800 million farmers can look forward to a prosperous future. Read NY Times. Think garbage. Garbage in. Garbage out.

Really - how long are the 800M farmers going to sit by and watch their lives sink further and further behind. Unless the CCP enacts better social and economic policies to share the wealth of the nation with the near-billion farmers, I would keep my money out of the country.

When the 800 million farmer march onto Beijing and Shanghai and throw out the government, many businesses and people are going to get hurt. I don't really think the military command is going to gun down hundreds of millions of angry farmer. No way. Not in this day and age. Not in this day of the Internet. Once the miliary leaders begin the slaughter of the masses, you can bet your last dollar that the Western nations will come in and help the farmers. Don't you really think the US government has contingency plans on supporting a revolution within the Middle Kingdom? Don't you think the US government has teams of political and military advisers located near the Middle Kingdom to sweep into China and help the farmers?

As I have always said and believe, there is no way in this day and age, we can accept or tolerate any nation to be ruled by communism. No way. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not ever.

Long live capitalism! Long live the Queen!

Disappearing Chinese Protestors

I wonder where they are? I'll give you a buck for the right answer.

AIDS activist Hu Jia and Qi Zhiyong, whose left leg was amputated after he was hit by a soldier's bullet during the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, were among those who disappeared on Thursday, activist Zhao Xin said by telephone.

Another was an assistant of lawyer Gao Zhisheng, Gao said in an email.

Read CNN.

The China Question

When will democracy occur in the Middle Kingdom?

GOOG: Do Evil

(Sung to that famous Christmas song I really love.)

It's beginning to look like a disaster, everywhere I look.
There's another US company sucking up to the CCP
And they're going to get much richer.
But, a million Chinese will die anyway.

Japanese Consulate Official Kills Himself

In today's newspaper, The Yomiuri Shimbun (The Daily Newspaper), confirms that a public official working at the Japanese Consulate General in Shanghai committed suicide in May 2005. The official left a note saying that he had been approached by a Chinese from an intelligence agency who had wanted the Japanese to pass state secrets to the PRC. It appears that the Japanese official was placed in a compromising position (i.e. acts deemed inappropriate) and was being blackmailed by the Chinese intelligence officer.

While it is sad that the Japanese official took his own life, I am glad that he did the honorable act: kill himself. The official knew that if he betrayed Japan, the lives of other Japanese officials and the Japanese would be "at extreme risk".

As I have said elsewhere, I do not trust the CCP nor would I ever want to have business dealings with them or their 'so-called' - state agencies.

Government Cover-up in China

Sounds like the CCP is pulling back in time. Every western businessman with a eyes filled with dollar signs believes that China is the last marketplace on Earth. As such, westerners are willing to overlook the crimes committed by the government. You don't have to look further than this story: citizens gunned down in the streets.

What will Asia look like in 2030? Will the CCP begin their military march and invake and colonize the Koreas? Japan? Thailand? Australia? New Zealand. At the rate of their military growth, I expect all of them so. Hopefully, by 2030, I will be safely back in Canada and far away from the bloodshed that will occur in this region.

We have to remember that should China wish to expand militarily, it will need to do two things: (1) invade Russia and incapitate their military leadership, and (2) force the USA not to react. This leads to the obvious question: How will China force the USA not to react to China's military expansions? Easy answer: economics.

Chinese Government Enforces Press Blackout

Is there any wonder why I am afraid of setting foot in China again? When I had to fly to China on business a year ago, I was very worried that a government crackdown on foreigners would have put me in harm's way.

The Chinese government is so desperate to contain the flow of information flowing to its own citizenry. As long as the CCP can keep 'civilian protests and the government's crackdown on such events' from their own people, those in power ensure their own political survival.

There will come a time when the Chinese people will stand up and yell 'We cannot take it anymore!' - and they will march onto Beijing. With the entire world watching the capital city, the CCP will have no choice make dramatic changes within the country. Or else - the West will take apart their factories and head back to Vietnam or some other SE Asian country.

The CCP want to showcase their 'rule of law' and 'control over the economy' to the billions on the planet during the Beijing Olympics. The communists want to 'stand tall' in front of the world as they slap one another on their backs. What I fear instead is total chaos: the frustrated farmers and peasants of the rural communities will march onto the capital and leave a wake of destruction. While at the same time, thousands and thousands will be slaughtered as the government tries to cling onto their remaining power.

If you are smart, stay at home and watch the fireworks. The country is ready to implode under the many decades of CCP rule. The Olympics may help ignite the power keg.

Heaven help us all. The Middle Kingdom will fall into a massive civil war. Heck I might even pack up and leave Japan - lest I want to be standing in harm's way as the Chinese government starts lobbing bombs at everyone in Japan.

Torture in China: NYTimes

Just another reason to stay away from China: Torture is 'widespread'. Wouldn't it be better if the following were widespread in China instead?

What we want 'widespread' in China
(1) Democracy
(2) Free Media and Press
(3) Religion
(4) Education
(5) Cable TV & Internet Connections

Taiwan Independence

Will the Taiwanese government ever make a move to declare independence? And if they do it, will it happen in my lifetime?

Yuan Revaluation

What will the revaluation mean to the world? Not much. China's controlled appreciation against the US dollar has been widely predicted. There is no realy news coming out of Beijing. The CCP may have handed the US Congress a partial victory but the Chinese still control the playing field. As long as the Yuan trades at more than 8 to the US dollar, not much is going to change. Real change will only occur when the exchange rate approaches parity.

Local Corruption in China: Land Disputes

It's not a pretty video but you can grasp the simple message: Corruption at the local level will undermine China's position in the world. Unless the government in Beijing does more to eliminate the rot that is festering at the local level, who in their right mind would want to invest money and time in China?

(Read The Peking Duck: Hired Thugs)

This land dispute is going to spark a massive and bloody revolution. It is only a matter of time before the farmers take back the country from and mandarins. When that happens, the China we know today will not be the China we know tomorrow.

(Read Washington Post: Chinese Peasants Attack)

Chinese Secret Manuscript

If released, will the manuscript cause massive social and political upheaval in the Middle Kingdom? And if the answer is 'yes', is the world ready for a new China? My recommendations for all the global strategists out there: Start thinking of what a new and open China means to the world.

As for world stock markets, traders had better get ready for a 'ride of a lifetime'. Once the walls crumble, money is going to flow into and out of China like never before.

(Herald Sun: Chinese Manuscript)

Could this be the reason?

I stopped long ago trying to understand the Chinese.

(The Peking Duck)

Reason for Vice Premier's Quick Exit?

Could this be the reason why Vice Premier Wu left Japan suddenly prior to her scheduled visit with Prime Minister Koizumi?

(Avian Flu??) (Avian Warning)

Chinese Vice Premier Cancels Meeting with Japanese PM

One word: OUCH!

That has got to hurt the beauracrats at the Foreign Ministry. Japanese ministry officials have been working hard with their Chinese counterparts to bring together the two countries after the relationship was strained a few months ago. The riots in Shanghai and Beijing did not go over very well in Japan. Add to that, the Japanese PM has declared that he 'WOULD' go to the controversial shrine, Yasukuni Shrine' in spite of the protests of the Chinese government. With PM Koizumi telling the press that he 'would decide on an appropriate time to visit the shrine', one didn't need to be a rocket scientist to know that the CCP would yank the Chinese Vice Premier back home in the middle of her visit to Japan.

As a Chinese Canadian living in Japan (who also is married to a Japanese), I am both disgusted and amused by the actions of both countries. Here's my critique of both nations.

China
Disgusted: The CCP has done nothing to ensure the safety and welfare of all Japanese nationals in China. The CCP turned their backs on their 'duty' to protect foreigners and their businesses in that country.

Amused: The CCP should rise above the idiotic behaviour of the Japanese PM. Japanese PMs come and go and one day, a smart leader will emerge from the group of young politicians in the Diet. And when that day comes, I believe that future PM will listen to the concerns of the Chinese. Until then, the Chinese should take the high road and let stupid, nationalistic, and xenophobic Japanese politicians spew their rhetoric.

Japan
Disgusted: I am extremely disgusted that the Japanese government allows 'white-washed versions of Japanese History' to be published in school textbooks. What good does it do to keep the truth from future generations? I recall one day in a classroom when one of my students told me that the class should not discuss the plight of the 'Burakumin' (displaced class of Japanese citizens). Why? He sat their smiling and said that 'IF' people continue to discuss the problems of the 'Buraku', society will always remember them. In other words (his stinking and fucking idiotic thinking), Japanese should never discuss them and they will go away. Yeah - right. You fucking idiot. If I ever see that elitist bastard in Tokyo, I will tell him to jump in front of a Shinkansen. Japanese has got to accept and embrace their 'evil past' in order to take their proper place in the world.

Japan has done so much to help the world. And each time a stupid politician says something about 'WWII' or 'Yasukuni Shrine', it hurts the entire country.

Amused: I am still laughing at how few Japanese people care about telling the government to make changes to how this country is being run. If the electorate wants to return the LDP to office each and every election, then the electorate want the country to live in the past and not the future. How can we call this a democracy when it essentially is a 'one-party rule system'? Also, I don't really think the opposition parties are any better either. Perhaps, it would be better if a new youthful party emerge to takeover the reins of government. Heck - let me run and I'll do a bang up job!

(CNN: China Snubs Japan By Pulling their Vice Premier Out)

US Threatens Actions Against China

The US wants China to revalue the yuan and is ready to put muscle behind their demands. Now, I don't really think the US should make demands against any country to adjust one's currency in order to placate the wishes of the US Congress.

As the Chinese RMB has been pegged to the US greenback for the past decade or so, I look at the past decade as being a period when the world was helping China build up its infrastructure and economy. The world has embraced the idea of helping China grow. I am sure that the Chinese will one day return the favour tenfold. As China continues to grow, I hope (and predict) that democracy will one day prevail over the country. Democracy may not come this year or next year. But, rest assured, with a much stronger economic China, democracy is inevitable. That is what the past ten years of a pegged exchange rate is going to bring the world: A democratic China.

With a stronger economic China, the world has a new trading partner and export markets. China may enjoy trade surpluses right now, but they will not last forever. As Chinese people become much wealthier, they will begin to buy more and thus, net imports will increase. China is rapidly growing and one day, the country will be one of the main economic engines of global trade.

I don't think the US should go out and try to piss off the Chinese right now. I know that GW and the Gang are a wee unhappy at how slow the Chinese move. I, too, would love to see a revalued yuan but, I wouldn't go out of my way to 'bloody the nose of the Chinese' in order to achieve my goals. Deals take a long time in China.

My advice to GW is to invite the Chinese premier to visit the White House. Sit down with the man and discuss your concerns. Later, GW should visit Beijing some more. Sit down and discuss a shared vision of the world between the USA and China.

I wouldn't expect the Chinese to commit to any specified timetable but, it is a first step to establishing an open dialogue. C'mon GW - take a long, hard look at what you want to accomplish for the republic. While saber-rattling may win you opinion points in the Heartland and the industrial states, it does nothing for your (possible) place in history.

GW, you have a chance to be a great president - don't pass up the opportunity!

(NY Times: Beijing Brush Off)

China: Getting Better or Becoming a Nightmare?

In today's NY Times op-ed post, Kristof takes a look at the CCP and the state of the country and the fate of the world is 'not very good'. Apparently, the PRC is tossing journalists into prison for doing their jobs. Not a good sign if one wants to be or is a journalist. Perhaps, journalists should put down their pens and notepads and become 'crash test dummies'.

Let's hope that the PRC changes its stance and continues to help usher the Middle Kingdom into the 21st Century.

(NY Times: Kristof & China)

China Plans to Curb Anti-Japan Protests

While I applaud any moves by the CCP to curb violent anti-Japan protests, I do not want the CCP to ban them outright. Protest, in principle, are good. Allowing citizens to voice their opinions in public is a sign of a healthy democracy. I hope the CCP gives the citizens a chance to express their opinions in public forum as long as the protestors do not become urban terrorists.

(NY Times: China Offers Some Relief to Japan)

The Story of Hankantou: A Must Read

Excellent blog by the Angry Chinese Blogger. In the blog, we learn about yet another group of people who come and plunder the land from under Chinese villagers. This time the invaders are 'corrupt Chinese village heads'. And their accomplices? Rich and corrupt business leaders.

After you read the blog, think about how angry the Chinese villagers are right about now. And then, think about how little the CCP does to fix the injustices. Rather than helping villagers, the CCP punishes them for 'screwing up' the 'MASTER PLAN'. And what is the 'Master Plan'? Simple. Corrupt Chinese officials become rich. Poor villagers become 'dead'. With over a billion people in the country, what does the CCP care about a couple of million dead poor folks, right?

It is time for the Chinese people to launch yet another revolution. The Chinese need to bring 'fair and good governance' to the country. Why should people trust 'corrupt officials' in Beijing? I sure wouldn't.

Let's hope the 'Fairness Revolution' begins soon.

Why don't the protestors in Beijing and Shanghai march against the government? Is it because they are too afraid of being 'put down' by the CCP? Are the protestors really 'agents of the government'?

Remember the phrase "Worse than the Japanese" - and then, think about the corrupt "village authorities" all over the countryside of the Middle Kingdom.

It is time for 'real change'.

Japanese Tourists Forgo China

As expected Japanese tourists plan to take their vacations and huge wallets elsewhere. (Anywhere but China.)

News article from Nikkei News

Wednesday, April 20, 2005 
 
China Tour Orders Drop 50% On Anti-Japan Violence

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Domestic orders for package tours to China for May and onward are plunging apparently due to anxiety over public safety after a series of violent anti-Japan demonstrations in the country.

According to JTB Corp., the nation's largest travel agency, the number of new orders has tumbled to nearly half the level seen before the protests began.

Kinki Nippon Tourist Co. (9726) and Nippon Travel Agency Co. also said that new orders have fallen by more than 50%, while officials at H.I.S. Co. (9603) said they have decreased by roughly 30%.

"An increasing number of customers are opting to observe the situation in China for some time," a JTB official said.

The major travel agencies have continued to conduct tours in China as scheduled even after news of violent demonstrations began to be reported, partly because the Foreign Ministry has not warned Japanese nationals against going there and because the incidents "have not caused major difficulties for Japanese tourists in general," said a JTB official.

"Though some groups of tourists were caught up in traffic jams caused by demonstrations, they were not forced to change their planned tour routes," said a Kinki Nippon Tourist official.

These travel agencies are now trying hard to collect information about the situation in China and provide it to potential customers. Hankyu Express International Co. on April 14 began to supply information about tours to Japan on its Web site.

Tour companies are also suffering a growing number of cancellations. At Jalpack Co., a member firm of the Japan Airlines Corp. (9205) group, about 80 customers canceled tours to China on April 18-19 alone.

Tokyu Tourist Corp. has begun to receive cancellations of group tours and school excursions, officials said.

Agency officials are concerned that if the current tensions continue in China, sales of tour packages for the summer vacation season could be affected.

A record 3.33 million Japanese traveled to China in 2004, but mounting strains in Japan-China relations might put a halt to the growing interest in visiting the country, industry observers said.

(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday evening edition)

I sure hope the current talks between high-ranking government officials can help stem the protests and attacks against one another's diplomatic missions. The world needs more 'peace and love' and less 'guns and thuggery', don't you think?

Massive Protests Anticipated: Against the CCP

It is no wonder that the CCP is trying to direct the 'level of hostility' in the country at the Japanese. If the CCP had no one to complain about, the Chinese would march onto Beijing and throw the government out on its asses.

The working conditions in Chinese coal mines is horrendous. More workers die in China than in any other country. I wonder why it is that the Chinese government will not release such stats? Is it because they don't really care how many workers die? I mean, let's remember that there are over a billion people in the country. The CCP needs to do more to protect the lives of its workers. When the country starts believing in the health and welfare of its citizens, then and only then, can we allow the PRC into the WTO.

The government had better begin addressing the problems within the country or face the wrath of angry from a billion people marching into Beijing.

(CSR Asia: Chinese Coal Mines)

Do the Demonstrations in China Advance Its Role in the World?

So far the jury is out on that one. I, too, am of the belief that China's stature in the world has been and will continue to be damaged by the government's unwillingness to do anything to stop the destruction of private and government property. It's one thing to demonstrate peacefully but it is a different affair when the government does nothing to halt the wanton destruction of property.

In my mind, I sure hope the Chinese 'nationalists' turn their efforts on throwing out the communists. Perhaps these past few weeks of demonstrations are mere 'training exercises' before the young demonstrators begin dismantling the pillars of communism. When that happens I will stand and applaud their actions. Until then, I hope the Chinese demonstrators will refrain from hurting others.

From the Nikkei News

OPINION: Stone Hits Person Who Throws It

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Why do Chinese demonstrators throw stones at the Japanese embassy and other properties? Why do they burn the national flag of another country?

Do they think these acts serve the interests of China, which is supposed to have become a full member of the international community by joining the World Trade Organization?

Video clips of the vandalism, which made us turn our eyes from the television screen, hurt most Japanese and provoked our anger. Protecting foreign diplomatic facilities from attack is one of the basic duties of a country under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

If China is unable to abide by such a fundamental rule, the country's qualifications for hosting the Olympic Games or a world exposition will be called into question.

After watching scenes of the Chinese security police letting demonstrators throw stones, Japanese people cannot help but believe that the Chinese authorities tacitly approve of the protests since it cannot be believed that Chinese people are allowed greater freedom of assembly or association than Japanese are.

The protesters' slogan that "acts performed out of patriotism should not be punished" is tantamount to a declaration that anti-Japanese activities -- though not criticism of their own government -- should be tolerated.

Will their acts of throwing stones, PET bottles, eggs and other trash that damage Japanese restaurants run by Chinese lead to better relations between Japan and China?

The two countries have had a delicate relationship over more than 2,000 years. In spite of the fact that they are neighbors, or perhaps because of it, relations between Japan and China have consistently fluctuated between repulsion and rapprochement, with ambivalent feelings toward each other underlying the history of their relations.

Confrontation can only be resolved by bilateral talks and wisdom, which should arise from sincere exchanges. Numerous people in both countries have struggled to build a foundation for friendly Sino-Japanese relations since diplomatic normalization occurred 30 years ago.

The vandalism committed by the Chinese protesters could instantly break apart what has been built up through strenuous effort. China must know that the violence has only turned the hearts of many Japanese, who had warm feelings toward China, away from the country.

Chinese Web sites abound with calls by the country's pundits for the public to prepare for an upcoming war between the two nations. However, there are no Japanese who think the country will go to war against China.

China does not need to point out that Japan is also to blame for the deterioration in bilateral relations. We are fully aware of that.

Since 1975, the late Emperor Showa, as well as the current emperor, have forgone visits to Yasukuni Shrine, no doubt because in 1978, class-A war criminals were added to other Japanese war dead that are commemorated there.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has defiantly continued to visit the shrine, arguing that class-A war criminals should not be treated differently in paying respects to the spirits of those who died for Japan.

He has a significant obligation to take action to break the impasse that has emerged in Sino-Japanese relations.

As for the textbook issue, only a few schools have adopted the books China has taken issue with. It is absurd to allow such a matter to damage diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Many Japanese entertain doubts about the prime minister's diplomatic stance toward China. At a time when more than 30,000 Japanese companies are doing business with Chinese firms, the clash of nationalism is unfortunate for everyone concerned.

A certain degree of difference in interpreting history is unavoidable between two nations. But China's present criticism of Japan is based on too many unfounded assertions and misunderstandings.

There is no way to settle the dispute other than by holding bilateral talks. To facilitate such meetings, China must first halt the excessive anti-Japan campaign by some of its citizens.

-- Translated from an article written by Yasuhiro Tase, Nikkei columnist.

(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday morning edition)

Time to Pull Out of China

The anti-Japan demonstrations are not going away at anytime soon. I believe that the PRC is heavily involved in organizing the demonstrators. In addition, I believe one if not several of the Chinese internet portals are also actively involved in supporting the demonstrators - if not actively encouraging them. Read about my suspicions in earlier blogs.

If the PRC does not want Japanese companies to operate in the country, they should just come right out and say it. Stop this 'pretending' and let to the world that the PRC is actively engaged in halting capitalism. First, the PRC will kick out the Japanese. Next, they will kick out the USA. And finally, they will kick out the Europeans. Yup. I can see it now.

Here is an article from a Japanese newspaper (in full).

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Aeon Temporarily Closes 2 Jusco Shops Amid Protests In China TOKYO (Kyodo)--Japanese supermarket chain operator Aeon Co. (8267) temporarily suspended operations Sunday at two of its Jusco outlets in Shenzen and Zhuhai in southeastern China as protesters continued to take to the streets in anti-Japan demonstrations across China, company officials said. It was the third consecutive weekend that Aeon has temporarily shut down its stores in China, although operations are expected to resume Monday. With a growing number of other Japanese businesses also being affected, analysts said the recent developments may prompt Japanese firms to reconsider their strategies in China. In addition, Aeon covered up Jusco shop signs Sunday at some of its stores in Shenzhen and Guangzhou in response to requests by Chinese police authorities, the officials said. Meanwhile, Japanese convenience store operator Lawson Inc. (2651) said three of its stores in Shanghai were damaged by vandalism as protesters marched en masse Saturday, including shop windows being broken. All three stores resumed operations by Sunday noon. Also on Saturday, Yoshinoya D&C Co. (9861), a Japanese restaurant chain operator known for its ''gyudon'' beef-on-rice dishes, temporarily closed its shops in Beijing and one facing the People's Square in Shanghai where the demonstration took place. Operations returned to normal Sunday. Thousands of Chinese held another wave of anti-Japan rallies Sunday, accusing Japan of downplaying its wartime aggression and opposing Tokyo's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.

Related article at CNN: Beijing rejects Tokyo demand for apology

This month will be marked in history as the start of the new Asian Cold War. Let the nuke-building begin. I wonder how many nukes Japan can build this year?

The CCP is losing control over the country. I wonder how long it will take for the young nationalists to turn their anger at the CCP and oust them out on their asses? Who is going to run the country once the CCP are out? Is there a small group of political activists ready to seize control over the country?

(More news.)

China Invades Japan: A New Asia

It is without any doubt that the Chinese government has a heavy hand in the anti-Japan demonstrations in Beijing, Shanghai and the southern part of the country. The PRC are hell-bent on forcing an all-out war between the two countries. China believes it can win a war between the two countries. With a much superior standing army, China is anxious to occupy the Japanese archipelago. How the USA will react to a Chinese invasion of Japan is unknown. Here is what I suspect to occur within my lifetime: China will begin a two-prong attack in order to re-shape the Asia-Pacific region.

China will first attack Taiwan with the aim of drawing out the USA and forcing the EU to choose a side. China wants to bring the USA into a military confrontation over the 'renegade province'. The US government has made it their policty to come to the aid of the country. The US cannot walk away from helping a freely-democratic country that is willing to stand against a communist power.

Shortly thereafter, China will launch an attack against Japan. Yes. I honestly believe the Chinese will make a move to capture all outlying islands faraway from the main islands. With the support and tacit understanding of North Korea, China will boldly move quickly.

I am sure that China and India have already made secret political and military pacts on how to reshape Asia. With these two sleeping giants, they believe a new world order has them at its centre. How the US and the EU will react is anybody's guess.

It may be time for Japan to begin making serious plans on how to defend the islands against two future aggressors: China and North Korea. The Japan-US alliance is going to be tested very soon.

Anti-Japan Demonstration Getting Worse in China

Looks like the Chinese government is unwilling to squash the demonstrations in the country. Protestors were allowed to march to the Japanese consulate in Shanghai and hurl rocks and other objects at the building. However, demonstrators were not allowed to do much harm in Beijing.

Are the two Asian powers headed for military confrontation? Would China think about dropping a couple of nukes on Japan? Would the USA get involved?

It might be wise for the Japanese government to begin re-arming itself immediately. Should Japan go nuclear? Yes. Should Japan start acquiring short-range missiles? Yes. Should Japan start building nuclear subs? Yes. Should Japan start building aircraft carriers? Yes. Should Japan start boycotting Chinese products? Yes.

More Riots in China

Well, at least this time the Chinese are not protesting the Japanese. The Chinese are demonstrating against 'pollution'. I guess the Chinese citizenry have had enough of breathing in dirty air. And of course, this time the Chinese police were quick to 'clamp down' on the protests unlike their slow reactions to anti-Japan demonstrators.

(NY Times: Chinese riot, again)

Excerpt from news article

"The air stinks from the factories," said a villager, Wang Yuehe. She said the local river was filled with pollutants that had contaminated local farmland. "We can't grow our crops. The factories had promised to do a good environmental job, but they have done almost nothing."

Ms. Wang said villagers had pooled their money for two years and sent representatives to file complaints at government petition offices in Zhejiang Province and in Beijing. "But there have been no results so far," she said.

Air China Stories: Don't Read and Fly!

I don't think I will ever fly on Air China. Life is too short to have to go through this kind of experience. (Read The Peking Duck for 'what it is all about'.)

Massive Demonstrations in Beijing

More protests in Beijing. I don't know how much longer Japanese companies will maintain operations in China. Should the protests continue or grow more violent, I believe Japanese companies will begin yanking their staff out of the country. If the CCP wants to encourage further growth in the country, they will need to ensure safety to expatriates living in the country. Heck, I would even refuse to work in the PRC if mob violence continues to get worse.

Sina.com: Opportunist or Nationalist?

In a recent article on FT.com, many Chinese have taken to the internet to first, voice their objections over Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UNSC and second, to yell their frustrations over Beijing's lack of interest in derailing Japan's geo-political intentions.

What caught my attention from the article was a rumour that Sina.com may be taking an active role in 'organizing' the Chinese protestors. Now, if Sina.com offers private citizens the opportunity to use Sina.com's web services to organize acts of protests, that's okay in my books. Heck, that is one of the dangers and benefits of a free internet. But, if Sina.com is actively engaged in promoting, organizing, and supporting protests, that's when I have a problem. Again, how can a publicly-listed company on the Nasdaq go to such ends to help organize civil disobedience?

Is Sina.com trying to help overthrow the CCP? (Not too sure how the boys in Beijing feel about the possibility of a revolution coming to the capital.) 

Is Sina.com trying to become the 'new voice' of Chinese anger? (Wonderful - very opportunistic!) If so, why doesn't management and Sina.com come out and file a press release to that effect. (If Sina.com plans on changing its business model, then tell us so investors can make up their minds on whether or not to retain or sell their shares.)

In addition, why doesn't Sina.com make a filing to the SEC notifying investors of the company's intent to become a political action force? (If such is the case.)

If I recall from my reading Sina.com's IPO filing and subsequent 10-K filings, no where does it mention that Sina.com is engaged in or planning to engage in 'political movements or possible the overthrowing of a government'. This brings me to the obvious question: Can publicly-listed companies engage in overt or covert actions which may harm shareholder value? Gotta talk to legal counsel about this question.

I do not object to the Chinese people's right to protest against Japan's bid to win a seat on the UNSC. I believe in a free society, people should have the right to organize and voice their thoughts to the world. Heck, without the voice of people, there would be no change in the world. But, I do object to the fact that a company can and will engage in activities that can and will harm shareholder value.

How can we do financial analysis on company valuations under such conditions?

Is it time to start shorting Sina.com (Nasdaq: SINA)? Where did the company close at yesterday?

Excerpt from FT.com (link)

The report of the demonstration, carried by Sina.com, China's largest internet portal and an important backer of the anti-Japanese petition, could not be confirmed last night.

From Sina.com's SEC Filing (Company Overview) (Appears on page 4 of the filing)

SINA Corporation (“SINA”, “we” or the “Company”), is a leading online media company and value-added information services (“VAS”) provider in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC” or “China”) and for Chinese communities worldwide. The Company offers a network of localized web sites targeting Greater China and overseas Chinese, and provides an array of services to its users including region-focused online portals, mobile value-added services (“MVAS”), search and directory, interest-based and community-building channels, free and premium email, online games, virtual ISP, classified listings, fee-based services, e-commerce, and enterprise e-solutions. The Company generates revenue through advertising, MVAS, e-commerce and enterprise services. As of December 31, 2004, SINA had approximately 127.0 million registered users worldwide. See Note 14 “Segment Information” in our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for information about geographic areas.

    

Shorting Chinese Stocks

How many investors have begun shorting Chinese stocks this week in light of the recent violent protests taking place in China? Either the CCP does more to 'crack down' on the protests against Japan or many investors may slowly be dumping their Chinese holdings in the short run in an effort to hedge their investments. Others might take a rather aggressive approach and just 'short' the country. Take a look at how Chinese companies are doing over at the Nasdaq. Not too good right now.