strategist

YHOO: How many jobs will be cut?

Let's hope the number of jobs cut are less than 5% of their global workforce. I would hate to be in Jerry's shoes this week and next. Wall Street wants him to make some serious head count reductions in order to show them he's in charge. The staff in Sunnyvale are probably eager to cut some fat - but not too much. I mean who really wants to be 'left standing' after major job cuts, right? Think about it: who in the heck wants to work for an employer who could give a rat's butt to its employee. Am I right?

Jerry should cut or sell off any divisions that are not deemed to be the core business areas. And what divisions might those be? Hot Jobs? Get rid of it. Personals? Be gone. Oh no.

Jerry may need to take a look at joining forces with another Internet company very soon. I hope the company can survive another 10 years.   

Senator Obama Wins S.C. Primary

Congratulations on the huge win!  Just tuned in to CNN. The senator is projected to win the primary with more than 55% of the vote. This is a huge win because it puts Obama on the road to the White House. Regardless of what happens at the Democratic Convention in the summer, he is in a strong position to be the 'convention powerbroker'. Youth and new ideas can help bring 'new hope' to the US and her politics.

On another note, if the top 3 Dem candidates cannot pull together to run a decent and honest campaign process over the next 4-5 months, the party seniors (Super Delegates) should draft Al Gore to take over. Having the three fight like children only weakens the cause of the party.

EBAY: New Sheriff in Town

With Meg out of the way, how long will it take before the new guy 'attempts to change' the core of eBay and dramatically alter its DNA? A week? Month? A QTR? My bet is on one quarter. One earnings release. Here is what I believe CEO-elect Donahoe will do by the end of the year.

1.) Hire his old firm of Bain & Co. to prepare Skype to be shopped to new owners. (Any takers? Murdoch? Yang?)
2.) Shake hands with Jerry Yang and merge the two companies: eBay gets its hands on Yahoo's search technology. Yahoo gets access to eBay's merchants and sellers to sell advertisers. eBay takes over Yahoo Auctions worldwide. (Gotta make a deal with Inoue.)
3.) Bring Jordan back onside.
4.) Ask Pierre to step down as Chairman.
5.) Complete a company acquisition in the price range of $10B by the end of 2008. (Announcement will come in Q4 but, the deal will not be completed until Q2 2009.)

US Rebates 2008

Advice to Dear Cousins to the South:

Howdy! I heard that President Bush is kindly returning some of your hard-earned money you gave to the IRS back to you. Good for you. It is about time. Here is what you can do to help yourselves.

1.) Drive up to Canada and buy some very inexpensive medication.
2.) Take in an NHL game or two. And while you are at it, buy a few hockey pucks to give to your friends.
3.) Buy at least $50 worth of 649 tickets. You might win the lottery.
4.) Buy lots of Canadian flag patches and swear them on your jackets and knapsacks. It is better to introduce yourself as a fellow Canadian, eh?
5.) Buy the dvd box set of "Corner Gas". (Please don't try to find Dog River, Sask. It doesn't exist. - Wait, yes, please drive up to Saskatchewan. Make sure you pass through Regina and ask people to point you in the direction of Dog River. Spend lots of money while you drive through the Prairies.

Well, there you have it cousins. A great way to spend your tax rebates. Remember FTA - Free Trade Act. It is there to help you save money. Remember and tell your friends.

24: Season 6

Just received 24: Season 6 from AMZN. Finished watching Episode 1. Jack rules. It is hard to believe that President Palmer would be so quick to sacrifice Jack. And 'no', I do not believe David would have done it. Well, I have to watch Episode 2 now. Back later.

Global Stock Markets Rebounding

Are the global markets headed higher and higher? Or is this a temporary state to give investors a chance to catch their collective breaths before we see another 5% drop?  Perhaps, it is time to unload all those margin positions and buy treasurys.

I am sad to see AAPL dropping below $150. I sold my shares in Apple when it hit $169 before it made it way to $200. If the share price drops much further, I might be tempted to buy back into Steve's dream.

Nikkei Takes Another Hit

The index dropped over 500 pts today. There is definitely no 'decoupling' between the Japanese markets and the US markets. I do not think this will change unless or until Japanese companies begin to derive a majority of their business and profits elsewhere. Have we hit bottom yet? I doubit it.

Senator McCain wins South Carolina

I watched the CNN political coverage of the GOP South Carolina primary. Glad to see that Sen. McCain won. A surprise to me was how well the  former Arkansas governor did. Huckabee's concession speech went to the hearts of the Christian Coalition within the party. McCain's speech, however, went out to the Reagan faithful. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out: who will win the GOP nomination - Reagan's legacy or the religious faction of the party. My money is on the Reagan faithful.

Senator Clinton wins Nevada

One down, Super Tuesday to go. No matter who wins the Democratic contest, history will be made: a woman or an African-American on the top of the Democratic Ticket. Outstanding. I hope the winner selects John Edwards to serve in the cabinet. AG? Education? Health? I think the VP slot should go to Obama if Hillary wins. If, however, Obama wins, I think the VP slot should go to Edwards.

US 2008 Tax Rebates: Spending Advice

Well, it looks like the US President Bush and the US Congress will come to some level agreement on attempting to stimulate a very bad economy. In an election year, you knew this had to be coming. I only hope the stimulus works. But, before we grab our nearest lucky charm and recite some prayers, here is how I think my cousins to the south should spend their money: buy one Google share. With millions of people putting in a 'buy order'  for one share, we might expect to see its share price break the $800-mark. While I don't own any shares in GOOG, I, for one, would like to see its share price hit $1000 one day. In order for this to work, I would like to see online brokerages to waive their fees for one day.

Ah --- who am I kidding. Don't buy shares in Google. Do something more original - pay off a credit card balance. Put the money into a savings account for your child, grandchild or loved one. Whatever you do - don't go out and buy anything. $600 does not go very far anymore. If the US government, or for that matter - any government, wants to stimulate the global economy, the entire UN member states should pledge not to collect any income, social, pension, capital gains taxes from its citizens for one year. I am quite sure you could see some 'real' economic activity. C'mon - $600? Let's try harder here - folks.

US Economy in 2008

The correct question one should ask is not 'Will there be a recession?'  but, 'How bad will the recession be?' Right now, sovereign wealth funds, rich people, wealthy financial institutions must be very excited about the upcoming 'fire sale of assets'. The only winners in 2008 will be investment bankers and M&A lawyers. An entire new wave of industry consolidation is likely to pick up by Q3.

Yen Hits 105

I am somewhat surprised that the US dollar did not continue its long slide under 104 today. I am also surprised that the Japanese Gov't did not intervene in the markets to drive the US dollar back up. Or are they waiting until tomorrow?

On another note: did you get a look at the new Apple laptop? Wow! Major wow! Now, I have to find an extra $2000 and go out and buy one.

Dear Uncle Passed Away Today

Today is a very sad day for our family. Our closest uncle passed away. I can say without any doubt that my family could not have survived financially and emotionally without his support when I was growing up. As a second-generation Chinese Canadian, my parents faced many struggles living in Canada. With a large family, my uncle helped us as much as he could. My mother, my two sisters and I helped out at his restaurant. Although I was but a teenager, I hung around with my mother and did odds and ends. I can still remember the first time, Uncle gave me $5 for helping for the month. I was so excited. I must have been around 10 or 11 years old. My first paycheque. I did not expect any money from my uncle but, he knew deep down he was happy to share his good fortune with his nephew.

I will not be making it back to Sask for the funeral. I only hope he will forgive me for not being there to say 'good-bye'.

A message to him:

Dear Uncle,

Thank you for being there for my family. I will tell many stories about you to my son. Say 'hello' to our ancestors for me.

God bless.

MacWorld Expo 2008

What new product line and services will Steve & Co. announce at this year's Expo?  Here is what I would love to see happen this year:

1. Products
   Rebirth of the Newton; handheld PDA
   Apple Wristwatch with micro-computer installed
   Ultra-thin laptop; how thin? try less than 2cm thick weighing less than 1kg
2. Services
   Apple Share x 1 with the purchase of any new laptop
   Apple Stores Volunteers - any Apple user/fan can apply to volunteer at a local store to help a nearby charity or inner-city school

Last but not least, I really want Steve to announce who will one day succeed him. I want to know that the company will be left in good hands.

Review: I am Legend

I went and say the new Will Smith film, I am Legend. Very depressing to think that mankind may one day cause its own destruction. I definitely am going to have nightmares for awhile. And a special message to Hollywood: in a future remake of a remake of a remake, can the main character survive and live happily ever after in the sanctuary?

Former Colleague Heading Home

Went out for a few beers last night with a former colleague, Eric P, who told me that he and his wife are heading back to Canada. I am sad to lose another buddy to Canada but I really envy him. He is moving back in the spring. So, I guess I have at least 1-2 more times to go out drinking before they leave.

University Admissions Office Contact

The postgraduate admin office contacted me late last night/early this morning to confirm that my application was received. "Wow" on two counts. My application was despatched by EMS (express mail) on the 8th. They received it in London on the 11th. The 2nd wow is they took the time to contact me. Let's hope the Admin Officer signs off on my application and I can undertake my studies this spring.

Oldest & Dearest Friend Heads Back to Canada

I received a pleasant surprise in the mail today: My oldest friend in Japan moved back to Canada along with his wife and two children. I met Shannon when I was living in Osaka. By coincidence we were drinking at the same way too much alcohol at the same party and wouldn't you know it: we are both from Saskatchewan. Kindred spirits. Lost in Osaka. Lost in Japan. We became very good friends. You can actually see many of Shannon's photos in one of my photo albums.

Good luck back home!

HRC vs BO

I still believe Hillary will be the nominee for the Dems come November. Barack should be a very senior role in her possible (future) WH Admin. I'd like his name on the Democratic ticket as the VP nominee. That would ensure at least 16 years of Democratic control of the White House. Can't wait for Super Tuesday - that will surely crown the winner.

Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar

The yen has been bouncing around in the range of 108.50 and 109.50 for the past little while. I expect the yen to jump to 105 in the very near future. As long as there is uncertainty in the US economy, the yen will continue to make serious gains. I don't believe that the dollar will see the 115 level until after the US elections in November.

Day 001 - First Day Back at Office

Clocked in at 06h10. Clocked out at 21h00. Not a good way to start the new year. Got home at 22h20. I felt guilty about leaving the office early; I had at least another 2-3 hours of work to do. Instead of working until midnight, I will go to the office early again. My first meeting is at 08h45 but, I need to put in at least a good hour and a half before that meeting. I shouldn't complain. When I left the office tonight, there were still a lot of people working. I guess we all felt guilty about having being away from the office for the New Year Holiday Break.

Tomorrow is Last Day of the New Year Break

Only one more day of rest before the first work day of the year. I am glad that I was allowed to take 9 days off over the break. Nine days to stay at home and play with and take care of my son. I'll go out on Sunday and get a hair cut. I want to make a good impression on the bosses on my first day back in the office.

I need to be at the office before 06h00 on Monday: I expect up around 1,000 emails waiting for me in my mailbox. Not too happy about it. With a 07h00 staff meeting, I only have under one hour to process those emails.

I'll also send out my application and documents to the Admissions Office for the LLM programme. I can't wait to get started. It has been close to 6 years since I finished my last graduate degree proramme. I spend a couple of hours this past week organizing, cleaning and clearing space for the upcoming school term. I bought an additional monitor to help with the studies. I can use the extra monitor to access the various legal databases and use my laptop to compile notes and organize my study outline.

Nikkei Drops in 1st Day of Trading in 2008

I guess the result was not unexpected: Loss of 616.37 (down to 14,691.41).Hopefully the losses can be partly explained away with (1) short trading day, (2) many day traders are still probably on holidays overseas, (3) institutional investors will wait to see how the US markets do today and then, make their moves on Monday, and (4) who the heck trades on the first day of the year anyway?

Oil Hits $100

As I do not own a car here in Tokyo, I am somewhat insulated from the rising price in crude oil. Or until the higher price of oil starts filtering its way into the general economy via higher input costs for manufacturers, producers, etc. Like many who work here in Japan, companies cover commutation costs. The monthly bill for me runs close to $225. Let't hope my company will still cover my travel expenses when the higher oil prices pushes up my monthly commutation expense to $350+.

The higher oil prices may discourage families from driving to their next vacation spot but, I really doubt it will affect many here around the metropolitan areas. Japan loves cars. Cars are truly a sign of independence. No need to suffer the painful and crowded mass transportation during the extended holiday periods such as New Years and Golden Week. 

Stock picks: watch out for online travel agency companies, there may be pressure on the OTAs over the next 6-9 months so long as oil hovers around the $100+-level. Higher prices at the pump will mean that many consumers will have to cut back on their discretionary spending. Consumers may need to switch from 'premium retailers' to 'big box retailers'. 

LLM Programme

I have decided to apply for admission to the LLM Programme this year. Just waiting to hear back from the Admissions Office on what dox I need to submit with my application. I'd like to specialize in one major area such as international business law or securities law. I'll post my experiences during the programme here.

New Year's Greeting Cards

Happy New Year!

The first day of the new year is filled with many traditions. From opening up the mailbox and retrieving the Japanese New Year's Greeting Cards (Nengajyou), handing out Otoshidama and eating some very strange foods.

This year I received cards from: (in no particular order) Kaz, Aikawa-San, Tanida-San, Tsukasa-San, Hayashi-Sensei, Okoshi-San, Kishida-San, Kitano-San, Sawako-Sensei, Okano-Sensei, Akio, Yanagawa-Sensei, Emiko. And a very early card from Eric.

To one and all, 'Happy New Year' - May the New Year bring you lots of joy and prosperity.